Takeover target Monash IVF slashes full-year profit guidance as cycle volumes decline

Almost two months after rejecting a $350 million takeover bid as undervaluing the company, Melbourne-based fertility group Monash IVF Group (ASX: MVF) has cut its full-year underlying net profit guidance due to a continued decline in Australian assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycle volumes.

The company is now targeting net profit after tax (NPAT) of between $17 million and $18 million for FY26, down from the $20 million it forecast in February.

Today's trading update has revealed that Australian stimulated cycle volumes at Monash IVF fell 4.7 per cent on a rolling three-month basis to the end of April, dragging down the group's earnings outlook for the current financial year.

The downgrade follows the Monash IVF board's unanimous rejection in April of a revised 90c-per-share takeover bid from a consortium comprising Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson Holdings (ASX: SOL), which values the company at $350 million.

The board had also rejected the consortium's initial approach of 80c per share in November 2025.

The consortium, which holds 19.6 per cent of Monash IVF's shares, has twice been rebuffed by a board that maintains the offers undervalue the company and its long-term growth prospects.

"The key driver for the revised FY26 earnings outlook is lower than expected Australian ART market activity in the second half," says Monash IVF in its market update today.

"Based on Medicare data, across the Australian ART market, stimulated cycle volumes are down 4.7 per cent on a rolling three-month basis to the end of April compared to the prior corresponding period.

"The impact of adverse market conditions has continued through May and June."

Despite the fall in cycle volumes, Monash IVF says it has increased national market share by 1 per cent to 20.1 per cent on a rolling three-month basis compared to the prior corresponding period with some states showing "significant" market share gains.

"Monash IVF’s international operations have delivered growth, with second half FY26 volumes expected to be materially higher than the prior corresponding period," says the company.

"Monash IVF has continued to strengthen its clinical network, including the addition of key fertility specialists in Victoria and NSW following the appointment of inaugural chief medical officer, Fleur Cattrall."

The appointment announced last month was part of a transformation of the group's executive leadership team to bring "deeper clinical expertise" to the company.

Monash IVF says operational and cost efficiency initiatives that were announced with the half-year results in February are well under way, although CEO Victoria Atkinson notes that due to the timing of their implementation their effect in the current financial year has been limited and expected to provide a bigger contribution in FY27.

Monash IVF's first-half results for FY26, reported in February, showed revenue of $137.9 million, down 1.8 per cent on the prior corresponding period, while underlying NPAT fell 34 per cent to $10.4 million.

The full-year result is now tracking well below FY25's underlying NPAT of $27.4 million, which itself represented an 8.1 per cent decline year-on-year.

While the Genesis bid is widely seen as opportunistic due to the drop in Monash IVF shares in the wake of two separate embryo mix-ups that have been blamed on human error and IT limitations, the consortium has indicated that the 90c-per-share offer is as high as it plans to go.

However, analysts have noted that should a competing offer emerge the price could go higher.

Shares in Monash IVF were trading at 67.5c at 10.14am (AEST).