Gold Coast population slowdown on the cards but property is still king, says Colliers

Colliers' latest Gold Coast Market Overview for the September quarter has revealed new government estimates released this year that show the city's population won’t reach one million until 2043 – two years later than previously forecast.

But after surging 23 per cent over the past decade, medium series estimates indicate the city’s population will grow 41 per cent to more than 915,000 by 2041 - or about 100,000 less than the state government has been forecasting over the past five years.

Steven King, the Colliers Gold Coast director-in-charge, notes that a slowdown in population growth won’t hamper the Gold Coast property market which he says is 'thriving' across all sectors, from residential to commercial and industrial.

“We have to put this into perspective as the Gold Coast is a maturing city with a maturing property market that will continue to be driven by its position as one of the fastest growing regions in Australia,” King says.

The Gold Coast’s current population of 647,824 has been driven by a growth rate that has exceeded the 17 per cent Queensland average over the past 10 years, he says.

“A substantial portion of this population increase is due to interstate migration, particularly from cities like Sydney and Melbourne.

“This influx has not only enriched the cultural fabric of the region, but also boosted the local economy by strengthening the labour force, and consequently this has ignited increased demand and competitiveness in the real estate market.

“The Gold Coast property market is thriving across all sectors, largely thanks to a slowdown in new project commencements, primarily driven by escalating construction costs.”

The northern Gold Coast region from Oxenford to Ormeau is expected to accommodate most of the expected population growth by 2041, with an extra 103,000 people set to move into the area by then.

“This growth will be primarily driven by areas such as Coomera, Helensvale and Hope Island, which are anticipated to experience the highest growth in terms of population,” the Colliers Gold Coast Market Overview says.

Gold Coast North is expected to accommodate an extra 35,000 people over the same period, with the waterfront suburbs of Labrador and Biggera Waters playing a significant role in this population growth.

King sees positives for the Gold Coast from the downgraded population projections.

“On the one hand it gives the city’s property market a breather to catch up but, on the other, the scale of future population projections indicates demand for housing is not going to fall off a cliff in the medium to longer term,” he says.

“The near-term outlook remains supported by supply constraints, and this is reflected across all property asset types, including the industrial and office markets.

“The Gold Coast continues to draw significant interest from investors across various asset classes, which have retained their appeal due to limited supply, strong tenant demand and escalating rental rates.”

The Colliers report highlights that more than $16.6 billion in public and private infrastructure spending is helping to drive growth in the region. This number represents the combined total of just the top seven projects across the Gold Coast, including the M1 upgrade and the planned light rail extension and heavy rail upgrades for the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

“The expansion of road and transport networks, along with the development of a high-frequency light rail system connecting the rapidly growing northern suburbs to Coolangatta in the south, will not only bolster public transit options but also make investing in the Gold Coast an even more attractive proposition,” King says.