‘A very bleak future’: Report estimates Gen AI could put $519m at risk for Aussie music creators

While the music industry is among the early adopters of Gen AI, some 82 per cent of music creators are concerned that the use of the technology in music could prevent them from making a living from their work.

In the largest study of its kind in Australia and New Zealand, the AI and Music report offers a troubling view of AI technology despite more than half of music creatives conceding that the technology can assist the human creative process.

The report was compiled from research undertaken by Berlin-based consultation and research group Goldmedia which surveyed more than 4,200 APRA AMCOS members across Australia, New Zealand and overseas in May and June this year. The survey received responses from songwriters, composers and music publishers.

“This report is the first major analysis of the interplay between music and AI in Australia and New Zealand,” says Professor Dr Klaus Goldhammer, CEO of Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting.

“It examines the economic dimension and trends in this fast-growing market, as well as the attitudes of music creators.

“The high level of participation alone shows how much creative professionals are concerned about the challenges posed by AI in the music sector. Australia and New Zealand are not just adapting to AI-driven changes – they are leading the way, setting a benchmark for the rest of the world.”

The report found that almost everyone surveyed is concerned about the lack of regulation and government policy around AI and music, particularly the need for credit, consent and fair remuneration for their work.

Some 97 per cent of respondents want AI providers to be legally obliged to disclose when they use copyrighted works as training data, while 95 per cent claim that copyright holders must be asked for permission before their works are used as input for AI systems.

“We are seeing the equivalent of a fast-tracked industrial revolution,” says Dean Ormston, the CEO of APRA AMCOS.

“Global forecasts relating to Gen AI wealth generation by 2030 are astronomical, yet no major large language model platform or Gen AI service has asked for consent or paid for the data used to train platforms and drive Gen AI outputs.

“We now know from this survey that artists are innovators and are embracing this incredible new technology, however government must put regulation and policy in place now to ensure that everyone is given the adequate credit, consent and fair remuneration for any works being used in AI platforms.”

Ormston says the consequences of AI being used in an unregulated and unlicensed environment will be “economically devastating”.

“Creators pour their hearts and souls into their work, yet they’re facing a reality of seeing their creations exploited by AI platforms,” he says.

APRA AMCOS has urged the Australian and New Zealand governments to implement EU-style transparency guidelines on tech companies to disclose the content that has been copied and used without permission to build AI platforms.

“Urgent attention must also go to developing legislative protections around copying an artists' voice or authorial style,” Ormston says. “Without this, our industry is facing a very bleak future.”

The report estimates the cumulative loss over the next four years could be as much as $519 million to music creators, while the cost could escalate to $227 million in 2028 alone.

The irony is that some 38 per cent of music creatives have used Gen AI technologies of some kind in their work.

Among the other key finding in the report is the risk of cultural appropriation that Gen AI technology presents to the industry.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander members of APRA AMCOS, via the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Music Office (NATSIMO), were asked specifically about their concerns for the industry – in particular how to safeguard the authenticity and use of their musical cultural heritage, instrumentation and Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property (ICIP).

Some 89 per cent think AI has the potential to cause cultural appropriation, while 67 per cent agree that using AI in music creation makes it harder to protect their cultural rights.

“The rise of AI technology poses significant threats to the cultural and economic wellbeing of all Indigenous communities,” says Leah Flanagan, director of NATSIMO.

“Due to the unique nature and cultural significance of ICIP, AI's effects on this vulnerable sector are profound.

"Government focus has addressed unauthorised use of ICIP in arts and crafts, particularly in mass produced items, but it’s crucial that this focus urgently expands to encompass all fields of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island cultural creation.”