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Wealth manager AMP (ASX: AMP) has flagged underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of $170 million to $180 million for the first half of financial year 2026, with a surging contribution from its China partnerships identified as the single largest driver of the expected uplift.
The forecast represents a jump of up to 37 per cent on the $131 million reported in the prior corresponding half.
AMP has told the market that earnings from its China joint ventures are forecast to reach $56 million on a post-tax basis for the half, representing a 24 per cent increase on the second half of FY25.
The guidance also factors in $13 million in carried interest from a legacy infrastructure fund, $5 million in favourable group investment income and a further $5 million benefit from the North Guarantee, partially offset by a $12 million negative revaluation of sponsor investments.
The China partnerships have emerged as an increasingly material earnings line for AMP over recent reporting periods.
For the full 2025 financial year, the company's share of China partnership earnings rose 53.2 per cent to $72 million, driven primarily by strong growth at China Life Pension Company (CLPC), in which AMP holds a 19.99 per cent stake.
CLPC's assets under management grew 17 per cent during FY25 to RMB 2.4 trillion, equivalent to $515 billion, on the back of strong momentum in China's Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 pension markets.
AMP has previously pointed to expected uptake in the country's newer Pillar 3 individual pension scheme as a further structural tailwind.
Under the Chinese system, the three pillars consist of a mandatory state-run basic pension (Pillar 1), supplementary employer/occupational plans (Pillar 2), and voluntary individual savings accounts (Pillar 3).
The demographic case underpinning the growth is substantial as China now has more than 310 million citizens aged 60 or older, and total pension fund assets under management across the country's three-pillar system have been expanding rapidly as policymakers work to shore up retirement savings for an ageing population.
The first-half earnings update builds on a period of operational restructuring for AMP, which reported underlying NPAT of $285 million for the full 2025 financial year.
The company has been focused on accelerating organic growth and cashflow generation across its wealth management businesses while trimming its cost base.
AMP has previously pointed to the group's improving trajectory, emphasising organic growth acceleration and cashflow momentum across the wealth platform as key priorities following the company's multi-year simplification program.
Shares in AMP closed almost 10 per cent higher today at $1.90.
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