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Brisbane-based lottery technology company Jumbo Interactive (ASX: JIN) has revised its FY26 guidance, materially upgrading its US and Canadian operations while winding back a previously upgraded earnings forecast for its Dream UK division.
The Oz Lotteries owner and operator's revised outlook issued today is forecasting group underlying EBITDA of $82 million to $85 million, representing growth of 20 to 24 per cent on the $68.3 million posted in FY25.
Underlying NPATA is expected to land between $48 million and $50 million, up 13 to 18 per cent, while underlying NPAT is forecast at $39 million to $41 million, which is flat to slightly higher year-on-year.
One-off pre-tax items of between $8 million to $9 million have been excluded from the underlying figures.
The update drew a sharp positive reaction from investors, with shares in Jumbo closing 10.5 per cent higher at $7.18 today.
The standout mover has been Dream US, where underlying EBITDA guidance has been lifted to between US$5.2 million and US$5.5 million ($7.5 million to $7.9 million), nearly doubling the previous range of US$2.7 million to US$3 million ($3.9 million to $4.3 million).
Canada was also upgraded, with EBITDA growth now expected at 35 to 45 per cent, up from a prior forecast of 20 to 25 per cent.
Offsetting those gains, Dream UK underlying EBITDA guidance was trimmed to £7 million to £7.3 million ($13.5 million to $14.1 million), down from £8 million to £8.3 million ($15.5 million to $16 million).
The company cites increased integration investment, new market testing and seasonality as reasons for the downgrade.
The revision effectively reverses an upgrade announced just five months earlier.
At the February half-year results, CEO Mike Veverka had pointed to integration progress across the group, noting that 50 per cent of group EBITDA was now generated outside Australian lottery retailing.
The updated outlook arrives after a turbulent period for Jumbo's share price.
Morgan Stanley cut the stock from overweight to equal-weight on 25 June, slashing its price target from $14.50 to $8.40 and citing UK regulatory risk and concerns around the renegotiation of the company's contract with The Lottery Corporation.
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